This is a 10* TOP IL TOTAL on the UNDER Red Sox/Cubs.

I had a play on the UNDER (unfortunately), in the Cubs 6-5 win yesterday, and while that play came up short, I do absolutely love the way this one sets up finally as a lower-scoring "DUEL."

Boston has now seen the total go OVER the number in three straight, which is significant to note in this case as the Red Sox have seen the total go UNDER in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

Boston went 20-6 in June, but it's allowed 24 runs while dropping three of its last four.

The Red Sox look to get back on track on the mound by handing the ball to Josh Winckowski (3-1, 3.60 ERA), who over his last three starts combined has conceded four runs, 17 hits and three walks over 17 innings.

The home side counters with Alec Mills (0-1, 9.87), who gave up five runs over three innings vs. the Cardinals in his first start back from injury. I expect a much better effort here, as there's only one way he can go with his performance after that.

The situation and the numbers/trends point to the UNDER as the correct call in this one.

Good luck, NP