PREMIUM
UNDER 156.5: USC vs. ILLINOIS
(NCAAB) Trojans (USC) vs. Fighting Illini (ILL),
Total: 156.50 | -110.00 Under
Result: Win
Total: 156.50 | -110.00 Under
Result: Win
This matchup features two defensive-minded teams. The Trojans are a solid defensive rebounding team that doesn't give up quick second-chance scoring chances off offensive rebounds. Illinois isn't likely to dominate USC on the offensive boards like it vs. Penn State (19 offensive rebounds). USC also defends the three-point line well enough, ranking 54th in average opponent 3PT% (30.5%). SC is an average-paced team (170th in tempo, per KenPom) that excels in the mid-range on offense. However, it isn't particularly effective from three and doesn't attempt many shots at the rim (210th in near-proximity FG attempt rate).
Illinois' defense is tremendous (7th in defensive rating). The Illini held Penn State to 52 points last game, including 21 first-half points. PSU shot 30% from the field, including 2-for-12 (16%) from three. ILL dominated on the glass, outrebounding Penn State 57-38 and holding the Lions to just six offensive rebounds. Like Penn State, USC relies heavily on free throws (66th in FT attempt rate), but Illinois held PSU to 14 FT attempts and ranks 28th in the country in opponent free throw attempt rate.
While the Illini covered the 9.5-point spread against PSU with a 91-point outburst on Wednesday, counting on them to score that many points vs. USC to cover the 14.5-point spread is a bit riskier. While I don't anticipate a close game, I bet the under at 163.5 in the PSU-ILL game and see value in another wager on the under in Saturday's USC-ILL game at 156.5.
Illinois' defense is tremendous (7th in defensive rating). The Illini held Penn State to 52 points last game, including 21 first-half points. PSU shot 30% from the field, including 2-for-12 (16%) from three. ILL dominated on the glass, outrebounding Penn State 57-38 and holding the Lions to just six offensive rebounds. Like Penn State, USC relies heavily on free throws (66th in FT attempt rate), but Illinois held PSU to 14 FT attempts and ranks 28th in the country in opponent free throw attempt rate.
While the Illini covered the 9.5-point spread against PSU with a 91-point outburst on Wednesday, counting on them to score that many points vs. USC to cover the 14.5-point spread is a bit riskier. While I don't anticipate a close game, I bet the under at 163.5 in the PSU-ILL game and see value in another wager on the under in Saturday's USC-ILL game at 156.5.