MICHIGAN ST -2.5 vs. NWESTERN (BEST BET)
(NCAAB) Spartans (MSU) vs. Wildcats (NW),
Point Spread: -2.50 | 100.00 Spartans (MSU) (Away)
Result: Win
I trust the Spartans to cover the 2.5-point spread at Northwestern.

The Wildcats won't keep pace with Michigan State. MSU has a significant advantage in the paint, where it leads the nation in near-proximity field goal percentage (70.0%) vs. average opponents, per Haslametrics.com. That metric measures layups, dunks and putbacks. The Wildcats' defense ranks 127th in near-proximity field goal percentage vs. the average opponent. MSU also does a fine job at getting to the free-throw line (19th in FT attempt rate), where it shoots 82% (2nd). The Spartans have been winning without the three-ball, but I'll say it until I'm blue in the face: they're better shooters than their 3PT average suggests and are due for positive regression from long range over time.

As for Northwestern, I just don't see how they put the ball in the hoop often enough to give Michigan State a serious run for its money. The Wildcats rank 100th in Haslametrics' offensive efficiency rating and aren't particularly efficient in one area of the floor. They aren't going to outrebound the Spartans for second-chance scoring opportunities either, as MSU ranks 7th nationally in defensive rebounding (Northwestern is 176th in offensive rebounding).

The Wildcats can be a tricky team to play at Welsh-Ryan Arena, but Tom Izzo's Michigan State team is well aware and prepared for that. Besides, Northwestern lost steam in consecutive losses at Penn State and Purdue (by 18 points), while Michigan State is surging (eight straight wins). This line is too small — bet on MSU to easily cover!