Betting Trend: Providence is 7-12 ATS in its last 19 home games (-6.20 units/-30% ROI).

I like how the Wildcats have played heading into this matchup, especially against a Friars squad that has allowed 80-plus points in three straight games (84.3 PPG average). Providence can be tough to score against at the rim (20th in average opponent near-proximity shooting percentage), but that's not where Villanova likes to operate (344th in near-proximity attempt rate, per Haslametrics). The Wildcats prefer to run their offense from the perimeter (29th in 3PT attempt rate), as they shoot 40.2 percent (3rd) from three-point range. With the three-ball and the country's leading scorer Dixon spacing the floor, Nova is a scary matchup for Providence.

The Friars don't have enough offensive juice to compete with the Wildcats on Saturday. Villanova (35th in defensive momentum) rarely gives up second-chance opportunities (22nd in opponent second-chance conversion percentage) and will be locked in to sustain its momentum ahead of the final stretch of the regular season.