MSU has all the momentum and confidence in the world after beating Illinois, Purdue, Michigan and Maryland. With home-court advantage, MSU has enough working in its favor to cover. Wisconsin needs this game to have a shot at the Big Ten title, but so does Michigan State, as the Spartans are in the driver's seat.

While the Badgers are a well-balanced squad, I'm not sold they can defend MSU (12th in near-proximity shooting %) well enough at the rim (77th in average opponent NP%). On offense, they struggle to obtain second-chance scoring opportunities (287th in potential quick points off offensive rebounds and 212th in second-chance conversion percentage), and that isn't likely to change on Sunday. Michigan State is 12th nationally in defensive rebounding and 21st in average opponent second-chance conversion percentage.

The Spartans have earned four hard-fought wins recently, and it will show on Sunday, as they haven't grown tired of being "the hunted." Ranked 4th nationally in Paper Tiger Factor, Michigan State is a team you can count on in big games.