#477 ASA PLAY ON Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5 over Buffalo Bills, Monday at 7:30 PM ET -Historically teams that start the season with an 0-2 record hit over 60% ATS in game 3 dating back 10 years and yesterday (Sunday) those teams went 6-1 SU & ATS with the Titan being the only loser. Jacksonville falls into that category on Monday night and we’re getting nearly a full TD with the Jags. They have lost their 2 games by a combined 8 points and they’ve outgained their opponents this season +0.2 YPP. The Jags are also dominating in the trenches 5.4 YPC to 3.8 YPC which will lead to wins in most cases. This Jax defense is undervalued in our opinion and they match up nicely vs this run heavy Buffalo team. The Bills are only averaging 21 pass attempts per game (31st in the NFL) but they will have trouble running on this Jags front 7 that allows barely 100 YPG on the ground and 3.8 YPG which ranks 8th best in the league. The Bills offense has been uber efficient averaging 1 point for every 9 yards gained (2nd in the NFL) which isn’t sustainable. Jacksonville on the other hand has averaged 1 points for every 19.7 yards gained which is very poor and we would expect to improve. The Jaguars have definitely had their chances on offense moving inside their opponents 35 yard line 9 times on their 21 possessions this year but have only 3 TD’s and 35 total points to show for it. Last week they outgained the Browns by +1.3 YPP and outrushed them 6 YPC to 4.3 YPC and somehow lost. The Bills, on the other hand, blew out Miami but were outgained by over 100 yards in the game. They benefitted from 3 Dolphin turnovers and Miami QB Tagovailoa went out with a concussion midway through the 3rd quarter. Jax has faced Buffalo twice in the last 3 years and won both games as an underdog including 25-20 last year outgaining the Bills by 85 yards. This desperate Jags team gives it all on Monday and stays within the number.