#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs - St Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies, Wednesday at 8:40 PM ET - Last night's game just missed going over the total as it landed on 10 runs when the Rockies failed to score in the bottom of the 8th despite a 1st and 3rd no out situation. That game staying under likely is serving to help keep this total lower as, under normal circumstances given this pitching match-up we would have expected even more movement on this total today. It has ticked up a bit but it should have ticked up even more and there is solid value here. Erick Fedde starts for the Cardinals here and he has struggled in his road starts and now pitches at the toughest ballpark in the league from a pitchers standpoint. Fedde has struggled in 4 of his 5 road starts since the beginning of August. In those 4 starts he has allowed 16 earned runs in 21.1 innings! The Rockies will have Austin Gomber on the mound here and he has allowed 35 hits in 22.2 innings in his 5 home starts since the All-Star break. This was on the heels of a June in which he went 0-3 with a 9.39 ERA in his 5 starts! Since then Gomber has been better on the road but not at home as his last 5 home starts clearly show. Now he faces a Cardinals team that has won 6 of 8 games and scored an average of 5.3 runs per game in those 6 victories. The Cardinals have scored 6.3 runs per game in their last 4 games against the Rockies. They have also enjoyed success against a Colorado bullpen that ranks among the worst in the majors for bullpen ERA. The Cardinals bullpen certainly has been better than the Rockies but, again, pitching at Colorado is a whole different animal. The St Louis pen hung on yesterday but last season here the Cardinals allowed 6 runs per game and all 3 games in that series at Coors Field totaled more than 10 runs. The Rockies fell short yesterday but averaged 5.5 runs a game in their last dozen home games prior to that one. Colorado's slugging percentage at home ranks 5th in the majors this season. We like this match-up for plenty of runs tonight as favorable weather conditions are expected as well. With no post-season for either team they are not playing with playoff pressure here and will be relaxed at the plate and we are confident both these pitchers are going to struggle given Fedde's recent road struggles and Gomber's recent home struggles. Per our computer math, the highest probability in this one is for a range of 12 to 13 runs here. Over is the call in this one Wednesday evening.