#127 ASA TOP PLAY ON North Carolina +2.5 over Duke, Saturday at 4 PM ET - We were on James Madison last weekend vs UNC and picked up a solid win. We’ll switch it up this Saturday and take the Heels getting points @ Duke. Last week’s 70-50 loss for the Tar Heels was a bit deceiving. The yardage with JMU was basically dead even (616 to 612) but UNC lost the turnover margin at -4 (5 turnovers for UNC and 1 for JMU). Not only that, those turnovers turned into points for as the Dukes scored TD’s on a pick 6 and a blocked punt along with 2 other UNC giveaways that also turned into 2 touchdowns. The defense was obviously shredded but prior to last weekend that unit had played well allowing just 15.6 PPG through their first 3 games. The defense was embarrassed last week and we look for a huge effort on that side of the ball Saturday against a Duke offense that isn’t very explosive. The Devils rank outside the top 90 in total offense, YPP offense, and rushing offense. Duke is 4-0 but we haven’t been overly impressed. They struggled to beat UConn at home a few weeks ago 26-21 and they were outrushed 4.8 YPC to 3.6 YPC in that game. Last week they faced one of the worst teams in the nation, Middle Tennessee State, and while the final score looked solid (45-17 win) they only outgained the Blue Raiders by 45 yards. MTSU won in the trenches as well outrushing Duke 4.2 YPC to 3.5 YPC but the Raiders had 4 turnovers. UNC head coach Mack Brown apologized to his team after last week’s loss and they’ve rallied around him this week. We expect a big effort from the Heels. North Carolina has dominated this series winning 28 of the last 33 meetings. They were a dog in only 4 of those 33 match ups and covered all 4. We like UNC to win this game outright.