#288 ASA PLAY ON Baltimore Ravens -2.5 over Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - This is a much more important game for the Ravens who sit with a 1-2 record while the Bills have gotten off to a 3-0 start. Baltimore has outgained each of their opponents by a combined 265 yards including topping KC by 100 yards in a week 1 loss on the road. Their 28-25 win @ Dallas last week was a bit deceiving with the Ravens rolling out to a 28-6 lead in the 4th quarter before taking their foot off the gas. They won’t make that mistake again as Dallas scored 3 TDs in the final 9:00 minutes to make it tighter than it should have been with Baltimore holding a 7.6 to 5.9 YPP edge in that game. Buffalo is on the road on a short week after beating a bad Jacksonville team (0-3 record) on Monday night. The Bills had to come from 14 points down in their opener to nip Arizona and then faced an overvalued Miami team that lost QB Tagovailoa during the game. Buffalo is good but overvalued right now in our opinion. The host Ravens are averaging 203 YPG rushing on a league high 5.9 YPC and they should be able to take advantage of a Buffalo defense that has allowed 4.7 YPC (22nd) and is playing without their top 2 LB’s. When facing a mobile QB in week 1 (Arizona’s Kyler Murray) the Bills allowed 125 yards rushing on 5.0 YPC and allowed Murray to rush for over 10 YPC. Now they face the best running QB in the league. On the flip side, the Bills have also transitioned to a heavier rushing attack this year but they are now facing a Baltimore defense that ranks #1 in the NFL giving up just 50 rushing YPG on 2.8 YPC. The Ravens cannot afford to drop to 1-3 with 3 of their next 4 games on the road. Lamar Jackson is 27-4 ATS in regular season games when favored by less than 3 points or an underdog. This is a huge home game for Baltimore and we like them to win and cover.