#301/302 ASA PLAY ON Under 44 Points – Tampa Bay Bucs vs Atlanta Falcons, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Three of the four Thursday night match ups this season have gone Under the Total and the average total points scored in those games was 37.5. We expect another grinder on Thursday in this key division battle. Four of the last five meetings between these two NFC South rivals have totaled 47 or fewer points and the average total points scored in those 5 games was 42.5. When playing inside the division, both of these teams tend to play lower scoring games as expected. The average total points scored since the start of last season when TB plays a division opponent was 33.5. The average total points scored since the start of last season when Atlanta plays a division opponent was 41. These teams have combined to play 25 division games since the start of the 2022 season and 16 of those games (64%) have failed to top 40 points. Atlanta has struggled offensively this season scoring just 18.8 PPG and they’ve scored 2 non-offensive TD’s this year so the offensive only scoring numbers are actually worse. They struggle to stay on the field with the 3rd down conversion rate of 26% which is among the worst in the league. TB’s offense has been better scoring wise (24 PPG) but they only average 5.4 YPP which is in the bottom half of the NFL. The Bucs have had 2 higher scoring offensive outputs this season vs the Eagles and Commanders who are poor defenses ranking 30th and 31st in the NFL in YPP allowed. In their other 2 games vs Detroit & Denver they scored 27 total points. Atlanta’s defense is solid (7th in YPP allowed at 4.9) and they have allowed 26 or fewer points in every game this season (21 PPG allowed average). Low scoring game here.