#320 ASA FREE PLAY ON Louisville -6.5 over SMU, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Louisville outplayed ND last week and outplayed the Irish (395 yards to 280) and lost. They had 3 drives into ND territory resulted in 0 points just not taking advantage of field position. SMU getting pretty lucky with 5 non offensive TD’s this season including 3 in their win 2 weeks ago vs TCU in a game they were outgained. Last week they played a bad FSU team and picked up with win and the Mustangs were +2 turnovers (+6 turnovers their last 2 games). Louisville has impressive numbers at +205 YPG and +3 YPP margin. SMU relies heavily on the run having rushed for over 200 yards in each of their last 2 games vs TCU and FSU. Both those defenses rank 95th or lower at stopping the run so the Mustangs success on the ground wasn’t a surprise. In this game they run into a Louisville defense that has been stifling vs the run allowing just 2.8 YPC on the season (15th best in the country). Last week, a solid Notre Dame running attack was barely able to reach 100 yards on 31 carries. SMU has been at home since Aug 24th and barely beat Nevada in that game (their only true road game) as a huge favorite. SMU is a a bit overvalued right now as we look a few weeks ago Louisville was a double digit favorite over a solid Georgia Tech team and now laying under a TD here vs the Stangs. Cards roll.