#338 ASA PLAY ON Miami FL -20.5 over Duke. Saturday at 12 PM ET - We’ve been looking for a spot to fade this offensively challenged Duke team and this is it. We don’t see anyway they can keep up with Miami in this game. The Canes have the #1 total offense in the nation and they are #1 in YPP as well. This team has scored at least 36 points in every game this season and they are averaging 47 PPG which is also #1 in the nation. Duke’s offense is limited to say the least. They rank 118th in YPP and outside the top 100 in total offense. They also can’t run the ball (117th in rushing offense) which makes them very one dimensional. Not a good recipe for success vs a Miami defense that doesn’t get much publicity but has played very well ranking 14th nationally in total defense allowing 298 YPG. Duke’s defensive stats are very solid, however they’ve played some really poor offenses this season including MTSU (131st in total offense), Northwestern (132nd) and Florida State (106th). The 2 best offenses they’ve faced were Georgia Tech (45th) and UNC (27th) and both of those teams put up over 400 yards on this Blue Devil defense. Now they face a Miami offense that is far better than either of those 2 offensive teams. Both of these teams just played Florida State and the statistical differences were huge. Miami outgained FSU by more than 200 yards and had nearly a +2.0 YPP differential. Miami won by 22 points but led by 29 before FSU scored a TD with 18 seconds left in the game. Duke played host to FSU a week prior and escaped with a 23-16 win despite getting outgained by 111 yards. Duke had just 180 total yards of offense vs FSU but benefitted from 4 FSU turnovers and a pick 6 in that tight win. Duke is not nearly as good as their 6-2 record might indicate and we think they get thumped in this game. Lay it.