ASA PLAY ON Illinois +3.5 over Michigan, Sunday at 3:45 PM ET - We faded Michigan as a 10 point favorite earlier this week at home vs Rutgers and cashed easily with the Wolverines winning by 2 points on a 3 point shot at the buzzer. They trailed for most of the game vs a lower tier Big 10 team and Michigan simply cannot be trusted as a favorite. They are tied for 1st place in the conference with a 14-3 record but they rarely beat anyone handily. In fact, the last time they won by more than 4 points was over a month and a half ago on Jan 12th. While they do sit in 1st place in the league, they rank just 7th in PPG margin beating teams in Big 10 play but just +2 PPG. Illinois sits in 7th place in the Big 10 but they are vastly undervalued in our opinion. They’ve dealt with injuries and illness for much of the conference season prompting head coach Brad Underwood to state he’s never seen anything like this in all of his years of coaching. However, the Illini are now getting healthy. They had everyone back in the line up earlier this week and blasted Iowa by 20 points (we were on Illinois for that one). They rank in the top 5 in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency despite missing a number of players on and off throughout the season. When they were heathy, this team rolled Oregon and Indiana on the road (by 32 and 25 points) and nearly upset MSU on the road losing by 2. Because Michigan plays close games, they’ve been dreadful in conference as a favorite. In fact, when favored by -3 or more in league play, the Wolverines are 1-10 ATS. We like Illinois to win this game on Sunday.