This is an 8* play on the Minnesota Timberwolves.

While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't subscribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

Letdown spot: Portland is 22-26 after winning seven of its last nine and with eight of the next ten coming on its home floor, it's very hard for us not to imagine the Blazers coming in a bit complacent in facing the lowly Wolves tonight and with an important two game, back-to-back road trip in LA on the horizon.

Desperation breeds motivation: The Wolves have lost 14 of 15 overall and ten in a row on the road. Not only will they be trying to end that slide, but also to avenge three straight losses to the Blazers, including two close ones this year, a 106-101 setback on November 2nd and a 109-103 effort on December 5th.

ATS statistics: Note that Minnesota is already 5-3 ATS this year as a road dog in the 6.5 to 9 points range, while Portland is 0-3 ATS this season after three or more consecutive SU victories.

The bottom line: The situational factors and the trends do indeed both point to the TIMBERWOLVES as the savvy move in this contest.

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