PREMIUM
AAA's VERY EARLY "ASSASSIN!"
(NBA) Denver vs. New York,
Point Spread: -3.00 | -115.00 New York (Home)
Result: Loss
Point Spread: -3.00 | -115.00 New York (Home)
Result: Loss
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the New York Knicks.
We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Desperation breeds motivation: The home side will be the hungrier team today in our opinion, it's lost four straight and now sits 11th place in the Eastern Conference.
Carmelo Anthony: How Melo goes, so go the Knicks. New York is 0-7 in games he's missed, but he's expected to be in the lineup today.
Classic letdown/look-ahead spot: The Nuggets have been trading wins and losses over their last six games and come in off an extremely satisfying come from behind 115-110 victory over Chicago on Friday. With a game tomorrow night in Brooklyn, it's not too hard to imagine the visitors coming into this one a bit complacent.
ATS statistics: Note that Denver is just 10-11 ATS this season after scoring 105 points or more, while New York is 6-4 ATS after three or more consecutive losses, 5-3 ATS after scoring 85 points or less, 21-14 ATS vs. good offensive teams which average 99-plus points per contest and interestingly, 5-1 ATS vs. the Northwest division.
The bottom line: We feel there are enough situational and trend based factors to pull the trigger on the determined home side, play on the KNICKS.
AAA Sports
We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Desperation breeds motivation: The home side will be the hungrier team today in our opinion, it's lost four straight and now sits 11th place in the Eastern Conference.
Carmelo Anthony: How Melo goes, so go the Knicks. New York is 0-7 in games he's missed, but he's expected to be in the lineup today.
Classic letdown/look-ahead spot: The Nuggets have been trading wins and losses over their last six games and come in off an extremely satisfying come from behind 115-110 victory over Chicago on Friday. With a game tomorrow night in Brooklyn, it's not too hard to imagine the visitors coming into this one a bit complacent.
ATS statistics: Note that Denver is just 10-11 ATS this season after scoring 105 points or more, while New York is 6-4 ATS after three or more consecutive losses, 5-3 ATS after scoring 85 points or less, 21-14 ATS vs. good offensive teams which average 99-plus points per contest and interestingly, 5-1 ATS vs. the Northwest division.
The bottom line: We feel there are enough situational and trend based factors to pull the trigger on the determined home side, play on the KNICKS.
AAA Sports
