*10* SURE SHOT on Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have dropped three of their last four and lost 123-119 as a favorite at New Orleans Thursday their last time out. They're an underdog at home against the Golden State Warriors Saturday night though, and I'm happy to take the points on the home-team.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Golden State's Recent Games - The Warriors have won four straight contests, but they're just 2-5 ATS in their last seven and will close out a demanding seven-game trip with five of the games within an eight-day span since the All Star break.

2. Recent Meetings - The Thunder are 6-1 ATS in the last seven when squaring off with the Warriors at Chesapeake Energy Arena and they lost by just eight points at Golden State on Feb. 6. With one of the biggest home court advantages in the NBA one could argue that the Thunder should even be favored tonight.

3. X-Factor - The Thunder are 27-9-1 ATS in their last 37 when hosting a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.

Selection: This is a play on the Oklahoma City Thunder (8*)