The Milwaukee Bucks have lost three of their last four, and two of those losses came on their home floor. They come into tonight's game asked to cover a handful of points at home versus the Wolves. This young Minnesota team has been a dangerous underdog on the road all year long, and given Milwaukee's poor play on offense, we could see a close, low scoring game. My money is on the Wolves plus the points.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Bucks Offense - Milwaukee ranks 24th in the NBA averaging 99.1 points per game. They've failed to score 100 points in two of their last three home games, and they've failed to reach the total in five straight versus teams with a losing record.

2. Previous History - The Timberwolves are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 road games versus teams with a winning home record. The Bucks are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games versus teams with a losing road record.

X-Factor - The T-Wolves, who were beaten by the Bucks at Minnesota on Jan 2, are an impressive 45-25 ATS their last 70 when playing with home revenge.

Selection: This is a play on Minnesota Timberwolves (10*)