The Big East leaders Villanova will be a massive favorite at home Saturday when they host the Georgetown Hoyas. The Wildcats are coming off back-to-back wins over Marquette and DePaul, but Georgetown should provide a tougher test here this afternoon. These conference rivals have a history of playing close games, and my money is on the underdog in this contest.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Previous History - The Hoyas are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 versus the Big East, but they've been a good bet in previous meetings versus the Wildcats. Georgetown is 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series dating back to 2010.

2. Line Value - While the Wildcats are one of the best teams in the country, they are also one of the most overrated. This is evidenced by the fact that they are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games, and they've failed to cover in four of their last five versus teams with a losing record.

3. X-Factor - Hoyas leading scorer D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera comes in feeling the hot hand, averaging 19.5 points per game over his last four appearances.

Selection: This is a play on the Georgetown Hoyas (10*)