College basketball minnows Fairleigh Dickinson and Florida Gulf Coast will play in a first four match-up tonight, with the winner moving on to the tournament. With such high stakes, I don't expect either team to give up any easy buckets. This should be a defensive battle, and I think the total looks a little too high. My money is on the under.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Previous History - The Eagles have failed to reach the total in two of their last three games, with the one exception coming in an 80-78 overtime win over Stetson. The under has been a good bet in FGCU games lately, as the Eagles have gone under at a rate of 12-5-1 in their last 18 overall.

2. Defense - Both these teams have stepped up the defensive intensity over their last five games, with the Knights allowing opponents to score 71 points per game on 40.8 percent shooting. The Eagles have allowed just 68 points per game on 41.2 percent shooting during the same span.

3. X-Factor - The Knights have failed to reach the total in five of their last seven games at neutral sites.

Selection: This is a play on the Knights@Eagles to go UNDER the total (10*)