The Mets have taken the first two games of this series versus the Cubs, out-scoring Chicago 14-5. They go for a third consecutive win Saturday, but it won't be easy as Chicago sends Jake Arrieta to the mound. My money is on New York plus the runs at home.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Bartolo Colon will be on the mound for the Mets, and he just keeps on winning at the age of 43. Colon (6-4, 2.86 ERA) allowed just one run on six hits over seven innings in a no decision versus Atlanta his last time out. He hasn't faced the Cubs this year, but he gave up just a pair of runs on 12 hits over 14 innings in two starts versus Chicago over the last three seasons. Arrieta has looked human in recent outings, giving up seven runs on eight hits over 10 innings in his last two starts.

2. Batter vs. Pitcher - The Mets are batting .248 over a combined 117 at bats in previous meetings with Arrieta. That might not sound great, but keep in mind that they are batting just .234 overall in 2016. Curtis Granderson is hitting .333 with three home runs lifetime versus the right-hander.

3. X-Factor - The Cubs has lost four straight in New York, and six straight versus the Mets.

Selection: This is a play on the New York Mets +1.5 (8*)