The Miami Marlins failed to slow down the New York Mets as they managed to blow a six-run lead to lose the opener of a three-game series 8-6 last night. They get another chance Tuesday night, and I like the Fish's chances of recording an upset in this contest.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Miami hands the ball to Wei-Yin Chen (4-3, 5.11 ERA). The 30 year old southpaw has done his best work on the road and under the lights this season, so the splits are in favor of a solid outing. This will mark his first career start against New York, but he has held Yoenis Cespedes to three hits over 14 at bats. The Mets counter with Steven Matz (7-3, 3.40) who is 0-1 with an 11.57 ERA in two career starts against the Marlins. Matz is winless since May 25 and has surrendered nine runs on 16 hits in 10 2/3 frames through his last two turns.

2. Run-Line Heroes - The Marlins are a solid 22-21 against the run-line on the road this season, 17-9 as an underdog. The Mets are 13-20 against the run-line as a home favorite.

3. X-Factor - The Mets have lost eight of their last 11 when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game.

Selection: This is a play on the Miami Marlins +1.5 (8*)