The Chicago Cubs are sitting top of the NL Central division with the Pittsburgh Pirates 8 1/2 games back in third place. The Pirates are the hotter of the two teams though and had won seven straight prior to a 5-1 setback at St. Louis last night. Chicago has lost seven of its last eight, and I like the Pirates chances to stay hot and deal their division foe another loss tonight.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Pirates hand the ball to Francisco Liriano (5-8, 5.34) who has been knocked around by the Cubs on a couple of occasions this season. The left-hander will enter the game on a positive note though as he earned his first win in seven starts his last turn. Liriano has a 3.89 ERA home at PNC Park which is a significantly better mark than his 6.80 ERA on the road. The Cubs counter with Jake Arrieta who started the season exceptionally well, but he's 1-2 with a 5.87 ERA in his last three outings.

2. Pittsburgh's Bullpen - The Pirates' bullpen has 29 saves on 38 opportunities this year and closer Mark Melancon has converted each of his past 22 save situations dating back to April 27.

3. X-Factor - The Cubs are 1-11 in their last 12 versus a team with a winning record.

Selection: This is a play on the Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 (10*)