The Indians have split the first two games of this series in Kansas City, and they are a favorite in the rubber match Wednesday. The Royals have won four of the last five in this series, and they've won 38 of their last 52 home games. My money is on Kansas City on the runline.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Carlos Carrasco will be on the hill for Cleveland, and he's struggled in two previous meetings with the Royals this season. The right-hander gave up a pair of runs on 10 hits over six innings in a loss at Kansas City, and he allowed three runs on nine hits over five innings in a no-decision at home versus the Royals. Kansas City counters with Ian Kennedy, who is 3-1 with a 2.11 ERA in six starts at home in 2016.

2. Batter vs. Pitcher - Kennedy is 2-1 with a 4.01 ERA in three previous starts versus Cleveland, and the Indians are batting .248 with 32 strikeouts and just 24 hits over 137 bats against Kennedy.

3. X-Factor - The Indians are 0-5 in the last five meetings in Kansas City.

Selection: This is a play on the Kansas City Royals +1.5 (8*)