The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Milwaukee Brewers have split the first two of this three-game set at PNC Park. The Brewers are 0-8 in their last eight during Game 3 of a series and this looks like a reasonable price on the home team.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Pirates hand the ball to Francisco Liriano (5-9, 5.11) who was pretty sharp his last start in front of the home fans when he held the Cubs to a pair of runs (one earned) on three hits in five innings. His 3.67 ERA at home is almost three full runs better than his 6.52 ERA on the road. The Brewers counter with Matt Garza (1-3, 5.74 ERA) who conceded four runs on six hits and two walks in 5 1/3 innings at Cincinnati on Friday. He's 0-3 with a 5.68 ERA in five road starts for the season.

2. Home Cookin' - The Pirates are 9-2 in Liriano's last 11 home starts vs. a team with a losing record and 6-2 in the last eight meeting with Milwaukee at PNC Park.

3. X-Factor - Milwaukee's All-Star catcher Jonathan Lucroy drove in three runs in Wednesday's 9-5 victory, but he's just 5-for-26 in previous meetings with Liriano.

Selection: This is a play on the Pittsburgh Pirates (8*)