The Blue Jays are only 1.5 games back of Baltimore in the AL East, and they host the Orioles in Game 1 of a three game series at Rogers Center Friday. The Orioles are coming off three straight losses, and they face a tough Toronto pitcher here north of the border. My money is on Toronto at home.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Marco Estrada will be on the mound for the Jays, and he's been great all year. Estrada (5-4, 2.94 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on seven hits over six innings in a 2-1 loss to Seattle his last time out. He's pitched well in two previous meetings with Baltimore, surrendering four runs on 10 hits, while striking out 17 in 11 innings. The Orioles hand the ball to Kevin Gausman, who is 0-6 on the road.

2. Home Cookin' - The Orioles have the best home record in baseball, but they are 22-53 in the last 75 meetings in Toronto. They've lost five of their last six away from Camden Yards.

3. X-Factor - The Orioles are 0-5 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.

Selection: This is a play on the Toronto Blue Jays (10*)