The Houston Astros have lost four of their last five including back-to-back losses here at Comerica Park. The Tigers are on a roll as they seek to chase down Cleveland at the top of the AL Central, and I think the Tigers can record an upset today.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Astros hand the ball to Dallas Keuchel (6-10, 4.57 ERA). The left-hander has turned the season around after a rocky start and enter this game on the back of seven consecutive quality starts. Lookat at batter versus pitcher stats we can see that several Tigers have good numbers against Keuchel though, among them Ian Kinsler who is 8-for-26 so Keuchel might be in for a sweaty afternoon. Detroit counters with Mike Pelfrey (3-9, 4.98) who held Cleveland to just one run on five in six innings when he tossed opposite Kechuel back in April.

2. Situational - The Tigers have won seven of their last nine games when coming up against a left-handed starter and 16 in their last 21 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Keuchel has struggled with his command and has a 1.33 WHIP on the year.

3. X-Factor - Astros are 4-13 in the last 17 meetings in Detroit.

Selection: This is a play on the Detroit Tigers (10*)