The set-up: The Minnesota Twins limped into Cleveland on Monday with a 40-64 record while the Indians led the AL Central with a 60-42 mark. However, as The Twins and Indians get set to meet Thursday afternoon at Progressive Field in the final game of the series, the Twins have won each of the first three games. Incredibly, Minnesota has reached double figures in all three contests, outhitting the Indians 48-27 and outscoring them 35-16. Indians starting pitchers Danny Salazar, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer own a combined 22.68 ERA the last three days, allowing 21 ERs on 23 hits in 8 1/3 innings. The result being that Cleveland is in danger of falling out of first place in the AL Central for the first time in two months. The Indians have been alone in first place since June 4 but in losing seven of their last 11 games (coinciding with the Tigers' eight-game winning streak), Cleveland's lead in the division has been cut from 7 1/2 games back on July 20 to just two games over the Tigers prior to the first pitch of Thursday's game.

The pitching matchup: Hector Santiago (10-4, 4.25 ERA) will take the mound for Minnesota, his first start since coming from the Angels in a trade deadline move. The Indians will send Mike Clevinger (0-1, 7.71) ERA to the mound. Santiago switched losing teams at the deadline but is coming off a spectacular July. He made six starts last month, going a perfect 6-0 with a 1.78 ERA. The Indians will turn to rookie right-hander Mike Clevinger, who is being recalled from Triple-A to make Thursday's start. Clevinger is taking Danny Salazar's spot in the rotation, after Salazar was placed on the DL Tuesday with an inflamed right elbow. He's appeared appeared in four MLB games in 2016, three of them starts. He is 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA overall, with Cleveland going 1-2 in his three starts.

The pick: Looking a little closer into Santiago's July starts we find that while he has allowed three or fewer ERs in his last three starts, he did not complete six innings in any of those turns. In fact, Santiago's worst start this season came against Cleveland on June 10, when he was ripped for six runs (five earned) on seven hits and a walk in 1 1/3 innings. As for Clevinger, he is considered one of the top pitching prospects in the Cleveland organization. Note that Clevinger was 11-1 with a 3.00 ERA at Columbus. No sweep here for the twins. It's an 8 * play on the Indians.