Rogers' Coach's Clinic - 95-63-2 All Sports Run! 23-13 Last 36 Plays!
(MLB) Tampa Bay vs. Toronto,
Money Line: -144.00 Toronto (Home)
Result: Win
The set-up: The 63-49 Toronto Blue Jays are one game behind the first-place Baltimore Orioles (63-47) in the AL East. The Jays return home to begin a six-game homestand on Monday, looking to find their offense. Toronto has scored just 19 runs over their last eight games (2.38 per), after scoring just three runs in back-to-back loses over the weekend in Kansas City. Meanwhile, the last-place Tampa bay Rays enter this series having won six of their last eight contests against the Blue Jays, including a three-game sweep May 16-18 in Toronto. The Rays are well removed from postseason contention at 45-65 overall but have played better since the All Star break, going 11-11.

The pitching matchup: Tampa Bay sends Jake Odorizzi (6-5, 3.70 ERA) to the mound and the Blue Jays counter with R.A. Dickey (8-12, 4.49 ERA). Toronto made a big trade with the Mets after R.A. Dickey after he won the NL Cy Young award back in 2012, a season in which he went 20-6 with a 2.73 ERA. However, he has not been "that pitcher," having entered the 2016 season 39-37 overall, with the Jays going 51-50 (minus-$474) in all of his starts. His 2016 season has been his worst since coming to Toronto. Dickey did snap a three-game losing streak last Tuesday (allowed one run on six hits in seven innings) in beating Houston 4-1 but he remains 8-12 with a 4.49 ERA on the season (he's 8-15 in team starts, minus-$864 vs. the moneyline). His mound counterpoint is Odorizzi, who has been one of the league's best pitchers since the All-Star break. He's 3-0 over four starts (team is 3-1), allowing just two ERs over 26 2/3 innings (0.68 ERA) with 23-3 KW ratio.

The pick: I realize that Dickey has struggled at home all season, going 2-8 with a 5.40 ERA in 12 games at Rogers Centre (Jays are 2-10) and that Odorizzi has not allowed a run in his last three starts, over 20 2/3 innings. However, while starting pitchers are always a key, let's not forget that the Rays are a team undergoing a rebuilding process while the Jays are looking to nail down a second straight playoff berth. The Rays swept a three-game series at Rogers Centre back on May 16-18 and I believe the Jays will remember that well. 8* play on the Blue Jays.