The set-up: The Houston Astros shocked everyone last season with their playoff run, winning a one-game wild card playoff over the Yankees, before losing to the Royals in the ALDS. The team's "encore season" has not gone as planned, as the 57-54 Astros are currently 7 1/2 games back in the AL West (in third place, as well as four games out of a wild card berth, with two teams between them and the second AL wild card spot). As for Minnesota, the Twins haven't been in contention all year but as of late, seem to be playing with an eye to the future. In fact, the Twins open this four-game home series with the Astros in search of a fifth straight series win. Minnesota let its GM go and sold as many pieces off as it could at the trade deadline but in winning four consecutive series, has gone 8-3. Meanwhile, Houston is 3-10 in its last 13 games, averaging a puny 2.4 RPG in that span.

The pitching matchup: Collin McHugh (7-8, 4.73 ERA) gets the nod for Houston, opposed by Minnesota's Tyler Duffey (6-8, 6.21 ERA). McHugh has seen the Astros go 13-9 (plus-$285) in his 22 starts this season and enters having allowed three ERs or less in eight of his last nine starts. What's more, he's 3-0 with a 3.04 ERA in four career starts against the Twins (team is 4-0). In contrast, Duffey is on the verge of losing his spot in the rotation. He's allowed five or more runs in three of his last four outings (allowed four in the other one), lasting only 16 innings in that stretch, giving him an abysmal 11.25 ERA.

The pick: The Astros are beginning to"lose touch" in not only the AL West but the wild card chaseas well, and need to take advange of a four-game series with a team (Minnesota) which owns the AL's worst record at 45-66. McHugh over the struggling Duffey makes it a 10* play on the Astros.