The set-up: The Seahawks fell short of a third straight Super bowl appearance last season, losing in the divisional round at Carolina. Andy Reid took over a 2-14 Kansas City team in 2013 and opened 9-0. His team struggled down the stretch but entered the postseason 11-5, before blowing a huge lead in the wild card game at Indianapolis. His second year saw KC miss the postseason at 9-7 and then in 2015, KC opened 1-5. However, Reid (and QB Smith) led the Chiefs on a 10-game winning streak to end the regular season at 11-5. KC thumped Houston 30-0 in the wild card round but the team's season ended with a 27-20 defeat in New England. Both teams are strong playoff contenders again in 2016.

The game: It's the first preseason contest for both teams and we don't expect to see much of Russell Wilson or Alex smith. The Chiefs have acquired Nick Foles to back up Smith but after him, it's the untested Murray (Georgia), Hogan (Stanford ) and Bray (Tenn.). Seattle's QB backups are not much better with Boykin (Baylor) and Heaps (BYU). These teams met in Week 2 of the preseason at Kansas City last year and the Chiefs won 14-13, as neither team gained 250 yards of total offense. A closer look at KC's regular season-ending 10-game winning streak reveals less than a "murderers row" of opponents.

The pick: Carroll has an excellent ATS mark in the preseason (24-14-3) while Reid is sub-.500 ATS, going 29-38-1. I'm taking a FG (or more?) with Seattle as a 10* play.