The set-up: There's a logjam at the top of the AL East, as the Blue Jays currently own the division's best record at 68-52, with the Orioles and Red Sox in a tie at 66-52, one game back of the front runners. The Blue Jays and Yankees will play the rubber match of this three-game series Wednesday afternoon. The Yankees won 1-0 on Monday but Toronto came back from a 6-0 deficit for a 12-6 victory on Tuesday. The meltdown by New York's bullpen (allowed 11 hits, three walks and 12 runs in just four innings) dropped the Yankees to 5 1/2 games out of the second wild card spot

The pitching matchup: Toronto's surprising J.A. Happ (16-3, 2.96 ERA) goes for a major league-leading 17th win this afternoon, opposed by the disappointing C.C. Sabathia (7-9, 4.20 ERA) of the Yankees. The former Cy Young winner (C.C. won it in 2007) has been in a slump for two months, going 2-5 with a 6.41 ERA in 10 starts (Yanks are 5-5) since June 22. Finding for a positive in that span is the fact that he has followed up an ugly six-start winless drought (7.46 ERA) by posting a pair of victories in his last four outings. As for Happ, he's already fashioned a "career year" in 2016. His best previous season came back in 2009 with the Phillies when he went 12-4 (2.93) in 35 appearances (23 starts). He will enter this game as MLB's top winner at 16-3 (tied with Porcello), while his moneyline mark ranks 4th (18-5, plus-$1179).

The pick: Toronto has had five pitchers get to 20 wins in team history and the only southpaw to do so was David Wells, winning 20 games in 2000. Happ is making a strong run at 20 wins by going 10-0 with a 2.66 ERA in his last 11 starts (team is 11-0). Happ and Sabathia have squared off twice already in 2016, with Happ pitching well both times and Toronto winning 3-1 and 4-1. What changes here? Nothing! 8* play on Toronto.