The set-up: The Mets moved back above .500 (60-59) after posting a 7-5 win at Arizona on Tuesday. It was the team's first win this season against the D'backs, having lost four previous games to Arizona in a seven-day span. The victory moved New York to three games back of St. Louis by for the NL's second wild-card spot. Arizona is now 49-70, a record better than only the 48-71 Twins. Arizona's moneyline mark of minus-$1946 is better than only Tampa Bay's MLB-worst mark of minus-$2625.

The pitching matchup: Jonathon Niese (8-6, 5.20 ERA) takes the hill for New York in the rubber match of this three-game series, opposed by Arizona's Zack Godley (3-2, 5.24 ERA). Niese will be making his first start since rejoining the Mets, after making 18 starts for Pittsburgh prior to the recent trade (Pirates were 9-9). He replaces the struggling Logan Verrett (he was optioned to Triple-A Las Vegas), after making four relief appearances in a New York uniform. Zach Godley is also making a return to Arizona's starting rotation, taking the place of Patrick Corbin. Godley's seasonal record (see above) comes from making five starts in July and August, before moving to the bullpen.

The pick: Niese does not own a good history against Arizona, going 4-3 but with a 6.94 ERA in 10 career appearances (eight starts / team is 4-4). Godley's not much of a mound opponent and Arizona's season-long record speaks for itself but Arizona has beaten the Mets in four of five games this year. What's more, the Mets have won back-to-back games just once since the All Star break. Arizona is a 10* play.