The set-Up: The Miami Marlins had hoped to take advantage of an easier portion of the schedule, which included series with the Rockies, the slumping Giants, the White Sox and now the Reds. However, Miami is just 4-8 in that span (starting back on August 5), heading into the final game of its four-game series with the Reds. Miami (62-58) has slipped in the NL wild card race, falling one game behind the Pirates and two games back of the St. Louis Cards, who currently own the final NL playoff spot.
Miami took Monday's opener 6-3 but has totaled just five runs in losing on Tuesday and Wednesday, struggling to adjust to life without Giancarlo Stanton. The 50-69 Cincinnati Reds have little to play for other than pride but do expect to have all hands on deck for Thursday, after a series of minor injuries caused regulars to miss games during this series against Miami.

The pitching matchup: Jose Fernandez (12-6, 2.81 ERA) takes the mound for Miami and Dan Straily (8-6, 3.75 ERA) goes for the Reds. Fernandez toes the rubber after having had his last start skipped in an effort to keep his workload down in his first full season since returning from Tommy John surgery. His last outing was back on August 8, when he held San Francisco to one run in six innings, settling for a no decision. Straily has arguably been the Reds' most dependable starter. This marks his 26th appearance of the season and 23rd start. Opponents are hitting just .215 against him, the ninth-best mark in the NL. He hasn't walked a batter in his last 16 2/3 innings.

The pick: Straily is 4-0 in his last five starts and has allowed three or fewer ERs in eight consecutive outings. However, he's not in the class of Fernandez, who owns a 2.81 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and a .218 opponents BA. Fernandez is more dangerous at home than on the road but he comes in fully rested and I expect him to give Miami a much-needed win in this one. Marlins are an 8* play.