The set-up: The 73-50 Texas Rangers continue their three-game series at the 56-70 Tampa Bay Rays on Saturday, after taking the opener 6-2 on Friday night. Texas leads the AL West by seven games and is MLB's top moneyline team (plus-$2745), which is $1623 higher than MLB's second-best money earners, the Detroit Tigers. In comparison, the Rays own a better record than only the Minnesota Twins in the AL and own MLB's worst money line mark (ranking 30 of 30 teams), at minus-$2625. Is this a "fair fight?"

The pitching matchup: A.J. Griffin (5-2, 4.68 ERA) of Texas squares off with Jake Odorizzi (7-5, 3.72 ERA) of Tampa Bay. Griffin has seen his effectiveness drop consistently as the season has progressed. He opened the season with four quality starts in his first five appearances but he hasn't had a single quality start in any of his last 11. His ERA was 2.93 ERA at the end of June but his July ERA jumped to 5.84 ERA and it has ballooned to 7.41 ERA in August starts. Griffin's last two outings have been awful, allowing 11 ERs on 18 hits over just 11 1/3 innings (8.74 ERA). While Griffin began this season strong, Odorizzi was the "poster boy" of frustration, leading the majors in no-decisions with only three wins in 19 starts (had 11 no-decisions in that strtetch). He was mentioned often as a target at the deadline but stayed as Tampa Bay dealt Matt Moore to the Giants instead.

However, Odorizzi has been one of the best pitchers in the American League since the All-Star break. He's 4-0 with a 1.66 ERA (an AL-best for a pitcher with 25 or more innings), posting a 33-7 KW ratio. The Rays are 4-2 in his six post-break starts and he's led the way in helping the Rays play .500 baseball since the break. Griffin opened the 2016 with a 7-3 win on April 8, his first victory in more than two years after recovering from Tommy John surgery. Yes, the Rangers are 11-5 in his 16 starts but as noted, he's not been the same pitcher since the beginning of July. Odorizzi over Griffin makes the Rays a 10* play.