The set-up: The Cleveland Indians and Texas Rangers opened a four-game series in Arlington last night, as the two first-place clubs battle for the AL's best record. Game 1 of the series was a clear knockout by Texas, as Cole Hamels threw eight scoreless innings (two hits allowed with eight Ks and zero walks) in the Rangers' 9-0 win. The victory gives Texas a 75-53 record, which is two games better than Cleveland's 72-54 mark. Cleveland boasts the second-highest scoring offense in the AL at 4.91 RPG, but Thursday's shut out continued the team's current lack of ‘punch.' The Indians have scored just six runs over the last five games.

The pitching matchup: Corey Kluber (13-8, 3.13 ERA) will take the mound for Cleveland and Martin Perez (8-9, 4.27 ERA) does so for Texas. Kluber won the Cy Young award in 2014 but then fell to 9-16 in 2015, while posting MLB's worst moneyline mark among all starters (Indians were 11-21, minus-$1747 in his 32 starts). Kluber's 2016 season didn't seem to be going too much better until July but after losing on July 3rd, Cleveland's ace has gone 5-0 with a 1.78 ERA and 57 strikeouts over his last eight outings (teams is 6-2). Perez once again struggled away from home in his last outing, giving up six runs over as six innings at Tampa Bay. He's now 1-8 with a 6.23 ERA in 13 road starts in 2016 (Texas is 4-9).

The pick: However, while Perez has been a nightmare away from home, he's 7-1 with a 2.36 ERA in Arlington, as Texas is 10-3 in those home starts. That said, Perez's home record is not enough to sway me from backing the red-hot Kluber and his 1.78 ERA over his last eight starts in Friday's contest. Cleveland is a 10* play.