I like Northwestern here in a battle of two of the five Big 10 teams that aren’t projected to make the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats picked up a win earlier this week, at home, 77-65 over Nebraska. Now they look to avenge a four-point home loss where they were eight-point favorites.

That first meeting was a little odd. Penn State won because they controlled the glass (40-28 edge in rebounds) and made more free throws (15) than Northwestern even attempted (nine).

The Nittany Lions are 308th in the country in points per game, so unless they can replicate those edges in rebounding and free throw shooting, I don’t see them outscoring Northwestern tonight.

PSU lost on Monday, 67-61 at Maryland, and you may remember that I took the Terps in that game. The Nittany Lions lost even though Maryland did not make a basket over the game’s final 6:20. Bad sign.

Northwestern has covered all four times this season when matched up against an opponent with a losing record.