Houston is the favorite in this Regional Final, despite being the lower seed, as they have covered six in a row and just dispatched top seeded Arizona. The Cougars appear to be as strong as any team left in the field. They are top ten in offensive AND defensive efficiency. No other team still standing can say that.

Villanova, like Houston, is 3-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament. They’ve beaten Delaware, Ohio State and Michigan, none of whom were seeded higher than seventh (and the 7-seed Ohio State was basically a pick ‘em vs. 10-seed Loyola Chicago in the first round). ‘Nova’s shooting percentages - both overall and from three - have gone down each game.

This will be only the sixth time where the Wildcats are underdogs this year. They are 1-4 (straight up) previously in the role. Houston is one of the top pointspread teams in the entire country at 25-12 ATS, including 9-1 on a neutral court.

The way Houston dominated Arizona, an elite team, from start to finish cannot be overlooked. All three Houston wins in this tournament have been by double digits. They’ve actually won six straight by double digits.

Defensively, the Cougars are #1 in the country in FG% defense and I think they are going to do an excellent job at limiting Villanova’s threes. Also, look for Houston to continue to clean up on the offensive glass. They’ve collected 10+ offensive rebounds in five straight games. Villanova has allowed 11+ offensive rebounds in five of the last six games, the lone exception coming against Delaware. Lay the points.