UNC is 4-0 ATS in the tournament and going back to the last couple weeks of the regular season, they are on a 10-1 SU run in their previous 11 games, also going 9-2 against the spread. Duke has covered its last three games after a last second layup by Cal State Fullerton handed the Blue Devils a 1.5 point ATS loss in Round 1.

Both teams were eliminated by Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament. The only other loss for Duke, over their last 15 games, came to North Carolina, in Coach K’s home finale. The final score of that game was 94-81. That was after Duke won the first meeting, 87-67, in Chapel Hill. To say the Blue Devils will be highly motivated to avenge that last loss UNC is putting it mildly.

Duke was clearly the best team in the ACC this year. North Carolina has had a nice run, but it is worth mentioning that they were an 8-seed coming into the NCAA Tournament. Obviously, they are better than how they were seeded, but being an 8-seed shows they are far from the most consistent team.

The Blue Devils are just the better team here. North Carolina could have lost to either Baylor or UCLA, before they got lucky and faced a 15-seed in the Elite 8. I’ve never sensed Duke being in any danger in their tourney run.

While most teams have struggled to find their shot in the NCAA Tournament, Duke hasn’t. The Blue Devils have made over 50% of their field goal attempts and scored at least 78 points in every game.