The Reds have lost 3 straight against the Cardinals, aren't hitting, and are just 6-11 in September. They are a very poor road underdog, and struggle against left-handed pitching. Their starter Cessa was hit hard in his last appearance, but has otherwise been average with short starts.
The Cardinals are 11-5 in September and tough to beat at home. Lefty Jordan Montgomery struggled for the first time since becoming a Cardinal, but is a very good bet to bounce back today. He is 4-1, with an ERA of 2.28 in his last 7 starts The Reds have yet to face Montgomery.
The Reds are giving up twice as many runs as they score lately and have had some lopsided losses. The odds strongly favor the Cardinals, and with Montgomery on the mound and that lights' out pen, I will take them on the run line.