The Twins finally snapped their long losing streak here in Cleveland by winning Sunday, 3-0. Their season remains very much “on the brink” however, as they still trail the Guardians by six games in the Central. Today’s finale is pretty much “must win” for the road team (as are the rest of their games). I’ll be backing them.

The six-game edge Cleveland currently enjoys over Minnesota is a straight byproduct of a 12-6 record in head to head matchups. Other than that, the teams profile as being pretty evenly matched. They have similar run differentials. But I like the spot for the Twins, who are 8-5 coming off a shutout win while the Guardians are 3-6 after being shutout in their previous game.

Cleveland’s record at Progressive Field also isn’t that great. They’ve actually allowed more runs than they’ve scored here.

I’m aware that CLE starter Quantrill has not had a losing decision at home in quite some time (last year!) But the Twins’ Sonny Gray, who has a 1.81 ERA since the All-Star Break, is the better pitcher in Monday’s matchup. In 9 of his last 10 starts, Gray has given up two runs or less.

The Guardians don’t have a very strong lineup - they average just 3.9 runs/game at home - so expect Gray to dominate this afternoon. There could be a rain delay, but when the teams take to the field, it will be the Twins coming out ahead. 10*