UTEP isn’t going to get a lot of love from bettors here, especially with the Miners coming in at 0-4 ATS. But the Boise State team that comes to El Paso Friday night just isn’t as strong as we’re used to seeing. In their only “real” test thus far, the Broncos got run off the field in an embarrassing first half showing at Oregon State, a game they’d go on to lose 34-17.

Now Boise has bounced back with a couple of wins, over New Mexico and Tenn Martin, but that doesn’t convince me they are worthy of laying double digits on the road. The Broncos are 0-2-1 ATS in 2022 and pushed two weeks ago with a similar spread at New Mexico. I realize that UTEP just lost to New Mexico - by 17 - last week. But they turned it over SEVEN times in that game, one of them an INT that was returned for a TD.

The UTEP defense has not been bad the last two games, giving up 313 total yards to New Mexico State and just 299 to New Mexico. Yes, those are two bad teams, but Boise State’s offense just isn’t what it used to be. Broncos QB Hank Bachmeier has been inconsistent and was shaken up in last week’s game. On other side of the ball, two starters in the Boise secondary also got hurt last week. So there may be hope for a couple of big plays in the passing game from this UTEP offense after all.

Boise State’s offense seems content to play “slower” compared to years’ past, so I do not see them running away with this game. For the record, the Broncos are 2-10 ATS following a straight up win, 0-5 if that win was by more than 20 points. Also, they could be looking ahead to next week’s game at San Diego State

For UTEP, this game will be treated as “their Super Bowl.” It’s a rare national TV game (CBS Sports) on a Friday night against a fairly marquee opponent. 9*