The Phillies are hoping for one of the three Wild Card spots in the National League, but have not helped themselves recently by losing 7 of 10. Now all but one of those seven losses came at the hands of the Braves, who are one of the best teams in baseball. But the team Philly is facing now swept them back in July and I see an excellent opportunity to back the Cubs +1.5 at home in the series opener.

The Cubs have won five of their last six games, so they come in as the hotter team. When they went to Philly two months ago, they ended up outscoring the Phillies 25-7 in the three-game sweep. Now they get them at home. The Phillies have not been a good road team in 2022, especially of late, dropping 12 of 17 and four straight away from home.

Cubs’ starting pitching has the third lowest ERA (3.15) in MLB since the All Star Break. Marcus Stroman is on the hill tonight and looking to make it three consecutive quality starts. Against Miami and Colorado, Stroman allowed just four runs and eight hits in 13 innings. He’s pitched better than his record shows with a 3.80 ERA and 1.162 WHIP and has a 2.49 career ERA against the Phillies.

Meanwhile, Zach Wheeler hasn’t been great for Philadelphia recently, posting a 5.87 ERA and 1.37 WHIP his last three starts. It may be a short leash tonight as Wheeler only worked four innings last Wednesday in his first start in almost a month after being bothered with a forearm issue.

Give me the Cubs on the run line tonight as they’ve already proven they can dominate the Phillies and are in better form entering this series. 10*