The Padres continued their season-long dominance of the Mets on Friday. I underestimated Darvish, based on his past play-off record, and lost yesterday. San Diego is a very good road team, and today's starter is also a better pitcher on the road. Left-hander Snell had a strong finish this year, with a 1.76 ERA over his last 7 games, and just 1 run given up in his last three appearances. Snell has certainly been here before and has the opportunity to finally to come through for the Padres.
DeGrom is on the mound for the Mets. He has given up more runs (and home runs) than expected in his last 4 starts, with an ERA of over 4.00 in his last 4 starts. He has had finger issues, and hasn't pitched in over a week, so will be well rested. He will likely be on a short leash should the finger issue flare up.
The Mets have a solid edge on offense, and are in the proverbial "backs to the wall" situation. They are not as strong offensively against left-handed pitching however, dropping to mid-pack for the season. The Padres have the momentum, and a real chance to make a mark in the play-offs. Both teams have solid bullpens, lightly used yesterday. Snell is the Padres' best chance to win this series, and while they are a considerable underdog today, I expect them to either steal another game or at least stay close today. Take the Padres on the run line at +1 1/2. 9*!