The Mariners stunned the Blue Jays in the Wild Card Round, storming back from an early 8-1 deficit to take Game 2 by a score of 10-9 and thus sweep the series. But the Astros should prove to be a far greater challenge, particularly with Justin Verlander on the hill Tuesday.

Houston won 106 games and finished with the best record in the American League. They are overwhelming favorites to advance here and Verlander is an ideal choice to start Game 1, based on his Cy Young-worthy campaign where he posted a 1.75 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 29 starts.

The Astros went 12-7 against the Mariners in the regular season and that includes a 5-1 record when Verlander started. Five of those six starts from Verlander were quality. The one that wasn’t came in Seattle.

Like Verlander, Seattle’s Game 1 starter (Logan Gilbert) has done an excellent job at getting out of jams and stranding baserunners. However, Gilbert seemed to overachieve in the regular season as his FIP and xERA were higher than what you’d want to see. Righties hit him better than lefties and the Astros lineup is righty-heavy.

Verlander is simply too good to fade here and the Astros are 55-26 at home. I expect them to get out to an early lead against Gilbert and also note the Astros are 42-13 in day games. 9*