Miami OH has really surprised me. After losing QB Gabbert for the season, you would have thought their season might go off the rails. Instead, they’ve won three of four and the lone loss (Buffalo) was decided in the final seconds. All three RedHawks wins were upsets though and now, this week, they are laying points - on the road.

As should be obvious from the final score, 38-7 against Buffalo, Bowling Green played poorly last week. They’ve also been blown out at Mississippi State. No shame there. But the other three Falcons games were all decided by three points or less. BGSU upset Marshall the week after Marshall upset Notre Dame.

I think that going from Gabbert to backup Aveon Smith, who is always a threat to run, has caught most Miami opponents off guard. But I expect this Bowling Green defense to be “ready” for Smith. They are actually fifth in the country in sacks!

Bowling Green did play poorly last week, but not as bad as the final score says. Four turnovers really hurt in a game where total yardage was fairly close and the Falcons actually had more first downs. It was a terrible first half, then Buffalo returned a fumble 90 yards for a touchdown to start the second. Look for BG QB McDonald to have a better game this week.

Odd stat: the outright winner has covered the last 18 times these teams have played. I could see that streak broken here in what should be a close game. I could also see BG winning outright. What I don’t see is Miami running away with things. They are 2-6 ATS following an ATS win. 9*