The Bills face the Chiefs at Arrowhead coming in a 2.5 point favorite. Sure, it is Mahomes vs. Allen, two "pretty good" passers, but defense will decide this game, and on that note the Bills have a huge edge. Mahomes can maneuver his way out of most situations, but he may have his hands full on Sunday. A lot of the Chiefs' defense is just being on the field more than the opposition. While both pass defenses have solid pass pressure stats, the Bills do it with out blitzing much. Looking at other critical pass defense stats the Bills have a huge advantage, but none more explicit that opposing passer rating; the Bills are first with an avg. passer rating of 67, compared to KC's 105. Buffalo has given up the least points to date, while the Chiefs struggle to 24th. Rush defense stats for the Chiefs are curious. Nobody runs much against the Chiefs because they are usually playing catch-up. Last week the Raiders put up 155 yards, more than 70 over the Chiefs' average allowed. The Chiefs are 31st in defending the red zone at this moment.
Home advantage aside, the Bills have known since last year who stands between them and a Super Bowl ring, and have made the critical steps on defense to match up very well against KC. Take the Bills to win and cover.