A much healthier Chargers team meets a struggling Broncos side on MNF. Wilson is playing hurt and has not shown well to say the least, stumbling out of week five with an ugly 54 passer rating. The Broncos are 31st in points scored and 32nd in red zone scoring. They've put up some yards but haven't converted on third downs and have no finish. They are 26th in sacks allowed, including 4 last week.
The Broncos defense is nearly the polar opposite; 4th in points allowed and tops in defending in the red zone. Their run defense is middle of the pack at 14th in rush yards allowed, and 20th in yds/carry, however that pass defense has been very tough on opposing QBs, allowing an average passer rating of just 78.
The Broncos have not yet faced a top level offense this season, but they will on Monday. Herbert is just hitting his stride, but the curious thing about the Chargers offense was their run game last week, with a huge jump in rush plays and an astounding yards total. A balance of run and pass will make the Chargers offense even more potent. The Chargers have been very successful in protecting Herbert this season, and are tops in sacks allowed. We will see if they can hold off a tough Denver pass defense with 17 sacks and 51 pressures to date.
The Chargers' main issue is defense; they've given up an average of 27 points a game and are just average defending in the red zone. They allowed a ton of rushing yards in week 5 against Cleveland, but actually out-rushed the Browns in that game. Wilson will likely have an easier game as the Chargers aren't huge on QB pressure.
The Broncos may limit the Chargers' offense to some degree, but I don't think they will be able to shut it down. Denver may have a modest improvement on offense against a generous Chargers defense, but the Broncos have a long way to climb back to a respectable level. Injuries are probably more severe on the Broncos side. Of note, the Broncos are just about the worst team in the league for penalties. Take the Chargers, at home, to win and cover.