We’ve reached the end of the first round of the MLS Playoffs with two spots still open in the quarterfinals. The last one goes to either FC Dallas or Minnesota United, who meet Monday night in the Metroplex. I am expecting the home side to move on.

Now it was the road team winning both matches in the regular season series, but the 3-0 win by Dallas at Minnesota on Labor Day Weekend seems more instructive for our purposes here today. Things may not be that one-sided tonight, but Dallas is pretty clearly the better team.

FC Dallas finished the regular season third in the Western Conference with a +11 GD. They surged into the playoffs by winning six of their last seven at home, two of those coming against LAFC and the Philadelphia Union, who are the two top teams in the league.

Minnesota United has a -3 GD for the year and needed to beat Vancouver in the final regular season match just to get into the playoffs. The Loons have recorded just four points since late August, a swoon that coincides with losing defender Bakaye Dibassy. Even more concerning is they’ve lost their last four away matches.

So back the better side (Dallas) here as the visitors (Minnesota) seem a bit lucky to even be in the playoffs. A pretty cheap price all things considered. 9*