The Phillies have gone 5-1 this postseason, eliminating the Cardinals in two games and the Braves in four. The Padres are 5-2 since the playoffs began, needing three games to eliminate the Mets before shocking the Dodgers in four. Neither club was expected to get this far. So the question is who wins Game 1 of the NLCS?

I like the Phillies tonight, behind Zack Wheeler. Wheeler has been excellent this entire season, but especially over the last month where he’s allowed only four runs over his previous five starts. Only one start since the All-Star Break has seen Wheeler give up more than five hits. He’s also allowed only one home run over his last six starts.

Pitching against the Padres back in May, Wheeler went seven innings, allowed only four hits and didn’t give up a run. That was his one and only start against SD this year, but he is 3-1 with a 2.06 ERA in his career against them.

Yu Darvish also pitched in that series back in May. He too turned in seven scoreless frames. But then he faced the Phillies again in June and allowed three runs on seven hits. What has me worried about Darvish in this spot is the fact he’s already allowed four home runs in his two postseason starts. He’s very lucky that they were all solo shots and no more runs have been allowed. Darvish has now allowed at least one HR in four consecutive outings.

I think the Phillies are the better team and have the better starting pitcher in this matchup. So I’ll back them in Game 1. 10*