The last two games for Toledo have seen wild comebacks, one go their way and one not go their way. Three Saturdays ago, they were up 27-10 on Buffalo heading into the fourth quarter. They ended up losing that game 34-27 due to six turnovers. The following week, with a backup QB, they came from behind to defeat Eastern Michigan 27-24.

There is uncertainty over who is going to be the starting QB for the Rockets tonight. Dequan Finn, who got injured at the end of the Buffalo game and is in the running for MAC Offensive Player of the Year, is questionable. Backup Tucker Gleason threw three touchdowns last week vs. EMU.

Regardless of who is playing quarterback, Toledo is clearly capable of putting points on the board. But tonight they run into a Ball State defense that has held four straight opponents to 21 points or fewer. The Cardinals picked up a huge 27-20 win last Tuesday at Kent State as seven-point underdogs. That sets this game up as likely to decide who represents the MAC West in the Conference Championship.

Ball State is 3-2 in conference play, one game behind Toledo. The Rockets are rightly considered the class of the conference, but I think this spread is too high given the uncertainty at QB. Even if Finn does return, there has to be some concern over how effective he can be.

The area where I expect Ball State to be effective on offense is running the ball. If you remove a game vs. Central Michigan, this Toledo defense has poor numbers against the run. Four opponents have run for 200+ yards on them, including the likes of UMass and San Diego State. The Cardinals are also much better than the Rockets when it comes to not turning the football over. You’re going to want to take the points in this edition of Tuesday night MAC-tion. 9*